NCC Survey: Producers to Plant 13.2 Million Acres of Upland/ELS Cotton in 2007

AUSTIN, TX – U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 13.2 million acres of cotton this spring, down almost 14 percent from 2006, according to the National Cotton Council’s 24th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey (see table attached).

Upland cotton intentions are 12.83 million acres, a decrease of 14 percent from 2006. Extra long staple (ELS) intentions of 361,000 acres represent a 10.9 percent increase from 2006. The results were announced at the NCC’s 2007 Annual Meeting, which began today in Austin, Texas.

Assuming an average abandonment rate, total upland and ELS harvested area would be about 11.99 million acres. Applying state-level yield assumptions to projected harvested acres generates a cotton crop of approximately 20.66 million bales. This compares to 2006’s total production of 21.73 million bales. Assuming average seed-to-lint ratios, 2007 cottonseed production is projected at 7.21 million tons, down from 7.66 million last year.

The NCC survey was mailed in mid-December of 2006 to about 40 percent of the producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt. Surveys had to be returned by mid-January.

Dr. Stephen Slinsky, the NCC’s senior economist, said, “assuming normal weather conditions, a U.S. crop between 20-21 million bales is very possible.” He said the NCC realizes there are still a number of questions about the reasons behind the higher yields observed in recent years.  For most of the Cotton Belt, very respectable yields were obtained last year in spite of significant adverse weather, leading us to use simple three-year average yields. However, yield deviations observed over the past decade suggest that under ideal conditions, 22 million bales would not be out of the question, while severe weather problems could also push the crop to the 18-million bale range.”

Based on survey results, the Southeast, Mid-South, Southwest and Far West show intended upland cotton planting decreases of 22 percent, 20 percent, 7 percent and 16 percent, respectively..

Survey results for the Southeastern states show a significant shift into corn and, to a lesser extent, wheat. There is also a modest shift into soybeans. While Virginia decreases the most, 31 percent, Florida’s intentions are only 0.5 percent less than last year. Georgia and Alabama growers indicate 23.5 and 18 percent decreases, respectively.

“Except for Tennessee, the sharp increase in corn prices will draw Mid-South cotton acreage into corn,” Slinsky said. “Not all of the reduction in Tennessee cotton acres will shift into corn; almost half of these cotton acres will shift into wheat.”

Oklahoma showed the greatest intended decrease in the Southwest – a 15 percent drop to 271,000 acres. Texas growers indicated intentions of six million acres, a 6.3 percent drop from last year.

The Western region showed a projected 16 percent decline. For the second consecutive year, California growers intend to plant less area to upland cotton. Unlike last year, when specialty crops pulled Upland cotton out of production, the shift will be to ELS cotton and wheat. If that state’s growers plant the indicated 208,000 acres to cotton, it would represent a 27.1 percent decrease from the previous year. The survey revealed Arizona growers intend to increase upland area by 0.3 percent to 191,000. (additional details)